FOX Legacy Cup 1
As our forecast of 30 September saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
No team in the race is expected here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
The field
SAWEU · Elo 1,485
NAVI JuniorEU #97 · Elo 1,465
aimclubEU #129 · Elo 1,416
Lazer CatsEU #104 · Elo 1,410
Falcons ForceEU #130 · Elo 1,395
ABTOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,376
PUREEU #242 · Elo 1,367
Nice TryOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,366
Next UPOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,364
Flame HardOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,307
FamalicãoEU #222 · Elo 1,282
SINQUEU #113 · Elo 1,219
How it finished
Winners and losers
UNiTY won the tournament, but Nice Try gained more from it: 360 points against 125. What counts is whom you beat and what it replaced in your ten best.
aimclub
4–3Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
PURE
4–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
Lazer Cats
6–2Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
UNiTY
4–0Winner
—
Famalicão
2–3Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
Falcons Force
2–3Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
NAVI Junior
2–4Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
INFINITE
2–2Semi-final
—
EAC
0–2Quarter-final
—
SINQU
1–4Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
Nice Try
7–4Final
—
Flame Hard
0–5Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
ABT
2–3Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
Next Up
1–4Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 30 September (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 30 September, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are Valve's change between its releases of 7 September and 5 October, so other events and ageing move them too.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.