ANZC Locals Spring 2026
As our forecast of 8 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
FlyQuest
Ground ZeroRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 9%. From a final it pays: 27%, up to 58% with the title; past 50% with the title. 3% to 58% here.
In our runs THUNDER dOWNUNDER are above the 27% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 24 points below today's.
In our runs where they lose the final: 89%. From the title it pays: 95%. 72% to 95% here.
In our runs FlyQuest are above the 90% they hold today only with the title. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 18 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: <1%. From a final it pays: 3%, up to 14% with the title. Never past 50% here: 14% at best, with the title. <1% to 14% here.
In our runs Ground Zero are above the 2% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 2 points below today's.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
The field
FlyQuestAP #6 · Elo 1,636
2
In the race, 27% for the Major: THUNDER dOWNUNDERAP #10 · Elo 1,576
3
In the race, 2% for the Major: Ground ZeroAP #13 · Elo 1,506
4
AbyssalAP #16 · Elo 1,399
5
MindfreakAP #28 · Elo 1,366
6
madlikewizardsAP #37
KZGAP
What it moved
THUNDER dOWNUNDERAsia-Pacific · bottom half
27% → 3%
-24 points
Ground ZeroAsia-Pacific · top half
2% → 5%
+3 points
FlyQuestAsia-Pacific · top half
90% → 93%
+2 points
How it finished
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
FlyQuest won the tournament, but KZG gained more from it: 234 points against 145. What counts is whom you beat and what it replaced in your ten best.
KZG
2–3Semi-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 8 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- What it moved is each team in the race's chance given the half of the field it finished in, against its chance before, summed. Race impact was what that sum was expected to be.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 8 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 11 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.