Circuit X Curitiba 4
Why it matters
paiN
Imperial
BESTIA
FluxoRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 25%. From a final it pays: 30%, up to 58% with the title; past 50% with the title. 5% to 58% here.
In our runs paiN are above the 27% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 22 points below today's.
In our runs where they lose the final: 53%. From the title it pays: 77%. 24% to 77% here.
In our runs Imperial are above the 55% they hold today only with the title. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 31 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 12%. From a final it pays: 19%, up to 43% with the title. Never past 50% here: 43% at best, with the title. <1% to 43% here.
In our runs BESTIA are above the 14% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 14 points below today's.
2% to 12% here, whatever their finish.
In our runs Fluxo are above the 5% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 2 points below today's.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to 3% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to 2% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Drawn matches
Each team in the race's chance of the Major today, and in our runs where it wins or loses its drawn match.
The field
ImperialAM #9 · Elo 1,658
2
In the race, 27% for the Major: paiNAM #10 · Elo 1,623
3
In the race, 14% for the Major: BESTIAAM #14 · Elo 1,616
4
In the race, 5% for the Major: FluxoAM #11 · Elo 1,566
5
ShindeNAM #16 · Elo 1,565
6
GalorysAM #17 · Elo 1,561
7
Turma do PagodeAM #20 · Elo 1,525
BARCAOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,344
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 23 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- The other 7 seats are filled in each run from who usually plays where; no team is named there.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.