BESTIA
Americas #14at the Major
- 12
Wildcard - 13
SportsBetExpert - 14BESTIA
- 15
Voca - 16
ShindeN
ShindeNThe verdict
Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. BESTIA are 14th, 5 places outside.
Their next match, vs ShindeN on 22 Oct. In our runs where BESTIA win: 3%. Where they lose: <1%.
Who they are racing
BESTIA15 · 11–1814▲1, 1 place up at the cut2In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.
Wildcard comes up into the 9, NRG falls out.
Wildcard comes up into the 9, NRG falls out.
How these numbers are made
- Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
How they got here
32 matches in Valve's six-month window, 19 won, across 9 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -22.24.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -17.64.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 86% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 4 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 78% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 8 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 64% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.99.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 62% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 36% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 5 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
- Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For BESTIA that is 1,187.9 plus 1.0.
The two parts
The head-to-head correction is 0.1% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
- 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
- Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
- Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
- Valve's file prints 1,187.9; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
BESTIA: Below the median of the 14 chasing the slots on all four factors.
How good are they
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
3 of the 32 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 4.9 points.
How these numbers are made
- Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
- In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.