DraculaN Season 7
Why it matters
Eternal Fire
FaZe
HEROIC
JiJieHao
Luminosity
SINNERSRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 5%. From the title it pays: 23%. Never past 50% here: 23% at best, with the title. 4% to 23% here.
In our runs Eternal Fire are above the 14% they hold today only with the title. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 10 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals, their usual finish here: 92%. Anything else is too rare to measure.
In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their usual finish here: 98%. Anything else is too rare to measure.
In our runs where they lose the final: 14%. From the title it pays: 73%, past 50%. 3% to 73% here.
In our runs JiJieHao are above the 17% they hold today only with the title. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 13 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 1%. Anything further is too rare to measure.
In our runs Luminosity stay at or below the 1% they hold today, whatever their finish here.
<1% to 3% here, whatever their finish.
In our runs SINNERS are above the 1% they hold today only with the title. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 1 point below today's.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Drawn matches
Each team in the race's chance of the Major today, and in our runs where it wins or loses its drawn match.
The field
HEROICEU #12 · Elo 1,704
2
In the race, 92% for the Major: FaZeEU #20 · Elo 1,682
3
In the race, 14% for the Major: Eternal FireEU #27 · Elo 1,640
4
In the race, 1% for the Major: SINNERSEU #34 · Elo 1,636
5
In the race, 17% for the Major: JiJieHaoEU #24 · Elo 1,634
6
BC.GameAP #3 · Elo 1,610
Iberian SoulEU #44 · Elo 1,600
LuminosityEU #13 · Elo 1,575
9
BBLEU #31 · Elo 1,572
NexusEU #81 · Elo 1,520
SAWEU #35 · Elo 1,500
BASEMENT BOYSEU #74 · Elo 1,487
SashiEU #54 · Elo 1,486
LeoEU #82 · Elo 1,465
INFINITEEU #42 · Elo 1,463
WBTEU #45 · Elo 1,458
ASTRALEU #66 · Elo 1,446
aimclubEU #57 · Elo 1,440
HyperSpiritEU #120 · Elo 1,428
DramaEU #109 · Elo 1,404
MOUZ NXTEU #101 · Elo 1,378
EnvyOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,360
BayankhongorOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,337
InsidersOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,254
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 22 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.