Luminosity
Europe #13at the Major
- 11
Nemiga - 12
HEROIC - 13Luminosity
- 14
Ninjas in Pyjamas - 15
Inner Circle
HOTUThe verdict
Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. Luminosity hold the 13th.
Their next match, vs HOTU on 27 Oct. In our runs where Luminosity win: 4%. Where they lose: <1%.
Who they are racing
Luminosity26 · 21–3013▼12, 12 places down at the cut1
In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.
FaZe, 100 Thieves, Natus Vincere, PARIVISION and 1win come up into the 18, Luminosity, Inner Circle, 3DMAX, magic and Alliance fall out.
Luminosity1,547Luminosity26 · 21–301%FaZe, 100 Thieves, Natus Vincere, PARIVISION and 1win come up into the 18, Luminosity, Inner Circle, 3DMAX, magic and Alliance fall out.
How these numbers are made
- Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
How they got here
40 matches in Valve's six-month window, 20 won, across 9 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings. One event since Valve's 5 Oct release is not in its numbers yet; it comes first, with bo3's results.
BBLOct 20
0–2
NexusOct 20
1–2
Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Our estimate of what the event does to the points follows once it has finished.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 13 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 85% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -15.82.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 57% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -33.92.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 45% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 41% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 23% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 12% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +3.33.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
- Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
- The events since that release are bo3's results and prize tables, and the estimate is ours: Valve's standings projected to the event's end with and without it. It is replaced by Valve's own figures once Valve publishes them.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Luminosity that is 1,572.3 minus 25.1.
The two parts
The head-to-head correction is 1.6% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
- 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
- Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
- Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
- Valve's file prints 1,572.3; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
Luminosity: Above the median of the 28 chasing the slots on LAN wins, below on bounty offered, bounty collected and opponent network.
How good are they
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
30 of the 40 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 18.0 points.
How these numbers are made
- Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
- In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.