Falcons
Europe #5at the Major
- 3
MOUZ - 4
G2 - 5Falcons
- 6
FUT - 7
Aurora
Natus VincereThe verdict
Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. Falcons hold the 5th.
Who they are racing
Falcons5 · 5–65>99
In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.
FaZe, 100 Thieves, Natus Vincere, PARIVISION and 1win come up into the 18, Luminosity, Inner Circle, 3DMAX, magic and Alliance fall out.
Falcons1,843Falcons5 · 5–6>99%FaZe, 100 Thieves, Natus Vincere, PARIVISION and 1win come up into the 18, Luminosity, Inner Circle, 3DMAX, magic and Alliance fall out.
How these numbers are made
- Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
How they got here
34 matches in Valve's six-month window, 25 won, across 7 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings. 2 events since Valve's 5 Oct release are not in its numbers yet; they come first, with bo3's results and our estimate.
AuroraOct 18
1–2
BetBoomOct 17
1–2
9zOct 15
2–1
Ninjas in PyjamasOct 14
2–0
Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.
SpiritOct 9
0–2
Natus VincereOct 6
2–1
VitalityOct 5
1–2
AuroraOct 4
2–0
TYLOOOct 3
2–0
Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 8 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 7 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 70% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -19.10.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 49% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 12 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 31% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 26% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 7% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +3.24.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
- Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
- The events since that release are bo3's results and prize tables, and the estimate is ours: Valve's standings projected to the event's end with and without it. It is replaced by Valve's own figures once Valve publishes them.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Falcons that is 1,797.6 plus 45.4.
The two parts
The head-to-head correction is 2.5% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
- 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
- Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
- Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
- Valve's file prints 1,797.6; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
Falcons: Above the median of the 28 chasing the slots on bounty offered, bounty collected and opponent network, below on LAN wins.
How good are they
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
27 of the 34 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 19.1 points.
How these numbers are made
- Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
- In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.