← Race to the Major

3DMAX

Europe #16
6 stage 36 stage 26 stage 1
Graviti · Kursy · Lucky · Maka · misutaaa
Outside the profile on two of seven. Below it on win rate and head to head.Band is the other 17 Europe sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Down on three of seven since the 7 September release. Up on LAN wins.Dashed is 3DMAX's own profile on 7 Sep · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered86 Bounty collected82 Opponent network79 LAN wins82 Activity76 Win rate12 Head to head3
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
3DMAX hold a Stage 1 slot, 18 points clear of BIG
Chance of the Major · Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Europe standing
16th
  1. 14Ninjas in Pyjamas
  2. 15Inner Circle
  3. 163DMAX
  4. 17magic
  5. 18Alliance
In the Major, at Stage 1
VRS points
1,500
World #21 · 18 clear of BIG
Since April
19th to 16th
Peaked 12th · Valve's standings
Out of the race

Under 1% for the Major in our runs. 16th in Europe today; a median 24th at the cut.

// Act one

The verdict

Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. 3DMAX hold the 16th.

<1% 3DMAX hold a Stage 1 slot, 18 points clear of BIG Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 5 Oct 2026

Who they are racing

Europe · 18 slots
CutTeamTodayMajor
1Vitality1 · 1–22, 1 place up at the cut>99
2MOUZ2 · 1–33, 1 place up at the cut>99
3Spirit3 · 2–41, 2 places down at the cut>99
4Aurora4 · 3–57, 3 places up at the cut>99
5Falcons5 · 5–65>99
6BETBOOM7 · 5–89, 3 places up at the cut>99
Stage 3 line
7FUT7 · 5–96, 1 place down at the cut>99
8G27 · 6–84, 4 places down at the cut>99
9PARIVISION10 · 9–1130, 21 places up at the cut>99
10Astralis10 · 9–128, 2 places down at the cut>99
11Ninjas in Pyjamas11 · 10–1314, 3 places up at the cut>99
121win15 · 13–1732, 20 places up at the cut99
Stage 2 line
13HEROIC14 · 13–1612, 1 place down at the cut98
14FaZe14 · 12–1820, 6 places up at the cut92
15Nemiga15 · 11–2011, 4 places down at the cut80
16Natus Vincere12 · 8–2228, 12 places up at the cut76
17B817 · 14–2310, 7 places down at the cut69
18100 Thieves18 · 16–2122, 4 places up at the cut57
The cut · top 18 go
19magic22 · 15–3017, 2 places down at the cut29
20BIG22 · 16–2919, 1 place down at the cut26
21Inner Circle22 · 16–2915, 6 places down at the cut24
22JiJieHao21 · 17–2524, 2 places up at the cut17
23Eternal Fire23 · 18–3027, 4 places up at the cut14
24Nemesis28 · 20–3323, 1 place down at the cut6
25Luminosity26 · 21–3013, 12 places down at the cut1
263DMAX24 · 22–2616, 10 places down at the cut<1
27Alliance33 · 25–3518, 9 places down at the cut<1
28GamerLegion31 · 27–3521, 7 places down at the cut<1

In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.

FaZe, 100 Thieves, Natus Vincere, PARIVISION and 1win come up into the 18, Luminosity, Inner Circle, 3DMAX, magic and Alliance fall out.

TodayValve's Regional Standings, 5 Oct
1Spirit2,046
2Vitality1,911
3MOUZ1,863
4G21,847
5Falcons1,843
6FUT1,799
7Aurora1,716
8Astralis1,674
9BETBOOM1,596
10B81,555
11Nemiga1,551
12HEROIC1,550
13Luminosity1,547
163DMAX1,500
17magic1,489
18Alliance1,483
19BIG1,482
20FaZe1,482
23Nemesis1,455
24JiJieHao1,454
30PARIVISION1,411
321win1,383
At the cutOurs · ordered by chance of the Major · median place and range
3Spirit3 · 2–4>99%
1Vitality1 · 1–2>99%
2MOUZ2 · 1–3>99%
8G27 · 6–8>99%
5Falcons5 · 5–6>99%
7FUT7 · 5–9>99%
4Aurora4 · 3–5>99%
10Astralis10 · 9–12>99%
6BETBOOM7 · 5–8>99%
17B817 · 14–2369%
15Nemiga15 · 11–2080%
13HEROIC14 · 13–1698%
25Luminosity26 · 21–301%
11Ninjas in Pyjamas11 · 10–13>99%
21Inner Circle22 · 16–2924%
263DMAX24 · 22–26<1%
19magic22 · 15–3029%
27Alliance33 · 25–35<1%
20BIG22 · 16–2926%
14FaZe14 · 12–1892%
28GamerLegion31 · 27–35<1%
18100 Thieves18 · 16–2157%
24Nemesis28 · 20–336%
22JiJieHao21 · 17–2517%
23Eternal Fire23 · 18–3014%
16Natus Vincere12 · 8–2276%
9PARIVISION10 · 9–11>99%
121win15 · 13–1799%
3DMAXComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

FaZe, 100 Thieves, Natus Vincere, PARIVISION and 1win come up into the 18, Luminosity, Inner Circle, 3DMAX, magic and Alliance fall out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

// Act two

How they got here

45 matches in Valve's six-month window, 19 won, across 15 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.

25 Sep – 27 Sep
1win Private Club 1
The event's page →
Record1–2
Head to head-21.10
Still counts100%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L GamerLegionSep 27A loss -18.03
W AllianceSep 26Bounty collected #3Opponent networkLAN wins #1 +15.41
L Ninjas in PyjamasSep 25A loss -18.48
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

18 Sep – 23 Sep
Logitech G Play Connect 2026
The event's page →
Record6–2
Head to head+54.75
Still counts100%
8 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W LuminositySep 23Bounty collected #5Opponent networkLAN wins #2 +17.58
W Inner CircleSep 22Bounty collected #6Opponent network #5LAN wins #3 +17.06
W M80Sep 19Bounty collected #8Opponent network #9LAN wins #4 +17.40
W INFINITESep 18Bounty collectedOpponent network #4LAN wins #5 +7.47
L LiquidSep 18A loss -13.95
W BBLSep 18Bounty collectedOpponent network #2LAN wins #6 +12.05
L Inner CircleSep 18A loss -12.48
W EYEBALLERSSep 18Bounty collected #10Opponent networkLAN wins #7 +9.62
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected4 / 10 Opponent network4 / 10 LAN wins6 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 14 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Sep – 11 Sep
Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
The event's page →
Record1–2
Head to head-30.31
Still counts100%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L 100 ThievesSep 11A loss -15.56
L BBLSep 10A loss -20.54
W AcendSep 9A win outside the ten best +5.79
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -30.31.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

31 Aug – 3 Sep
NODWIN Clutch Series 11
The event's page →
Record4–0
Head to head+29.83
Still counts99%
4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W HOTUSep 3Bounty collected #9Opponent network #1LAN wins +14.80
W INFINITESep 3Bounty collectedOpponent network #6LAN wins +9.93
W WalczakiSep 2Bounty collectedOpponent network #10LAN wins +2.11
W ButterflyAug 31Bounty collectedOpponent network #7LAN wins +2.99
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network4 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 5 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

2 Sep
Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026: Global Qualifier
The event's page →
Record0–2
Head to head-27.68
Still counts98%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L MIBRSep 2A loss -11.48
L HEROICSep 2A loss -16.20
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -27.68.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

12 Aug – 15 Aug
Esports World Cup 2026
The event's page →
Record0–2
Head to head-30.32
Still counts86%

These results are down to 86% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L magicAug 15A loss -13.53
L Natus VincereAug 12A loss -16.79
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -30.32.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
Record0–1
Head to head-2.74
Still counts75%

These results are down to 75% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L MOUZJul 30A loss -2.74
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.74.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

24 Jul – 26 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Record2–0
Head to head+29.82
Still counts73%

These results are down to 73% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W FUTJul 26Bounty collected #1Opponent networkLAN wins +18.51
W magicJul 24Bounty collected #2Opponent network #8LAN wins +11.31
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

21 Jul – 23 Jul
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: European Qualifier
Record0–2
Head to head-38.12
Still counts71%

These results are down to 71% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L WalczakiJul 23A loss -20.33
L Iberian SoulJul 21A loss -17.79
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -38.12.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

15 Jul – 17 Jul
Stake Ranked Episode 3
Record2–2
Head to head-17.00
Still counts67%

These results are down to 67% of their original weight.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L K27Jul 17A loss -12.93
W Iberian SoulJul 17Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #8 +3.54
W paiNJul 16Bounty collected #7Opponent networkLAN wins #9 +5.51
L HEROICJul 15A loss -13.12
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

1 Jul – 4 Jul
XSE Pro League 2026
Record1–3
Head to head-24.56
Still counts58%

These results are down to 58% of their original weight.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L FaZeJul 4A loss -11.48
L 9zJul 3A loss -9.30
L EYEBALLERSJul 2A loss -13.55
W Ninjas in PyjamasJul 1Bounty collected #4Opponent network #3LAN wins #10 +9.77
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

27 May – 28 May
Stake Ranked Episode 2
Record0–2
Head to head-12.67
Still counts33%

These results are down to 33% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L AllianceMay 28A loss -6.25
L magicMay 27A loss -6.42
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -12.67.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

19 May – 20 May
CS Asia Championships 2026
Record0–2
Head to head-9.29
Still counts28%

These results are down to 28% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L LiquidMay 20A loss -5.04
L MIBRMay 19A loss -4.25
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -9.29.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

13 Apr – 15 Apr
Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2026
Record1–2
Head to head+0.06
Still counts5%

These results are down to 5% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L G2Apr 15A loss -0.23
W LiquidApr 14A win outside the ten best +0.55
L FalconsApr 13A loss -0.26
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.06.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Apr – 11 Apr
PGL Bucharest 2026
Record1–2
Head to head-0.57
Still counts2%

These results are down to 2% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L The MongolZApr 11A loss -0.52
L AstralisApr 10A loss -0.13
W MIBRApr 9A win outside the ten best +0.08
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.57.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For 3DMAX that is 1,599.7 minus 99.9.

The two parts

Valve's · release 5 Oct 2026
Starting value1,599.7
+
Head to head−99.9
=
Points1,500

The head-to-head correction is 6.7% of the total.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.675median 0.663
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.547median 0.560
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.291median 0.300
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.888median 0.861
3DMAXMedian of the 28 chasing the slots in Europe
The four factors0.675 + 0.547 + 0.291 + 0.888
Their average÷ 4 = 0.600
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.600 ÷ 0.800 × 1,600 = 1,600.5
  • 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 1,599.7; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

3DMAX: Above the median of the 28 chasing the slots on bounty offered and LAN wins, below on bounty collected and opponent network.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,630
Rank by our Elo42 of 560
Valve's world standing21

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W W L L L W W L L L W L L W W W W L L W L W L W W W W L W L
Every match by opponent strength

28 of the 45 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 18.5 points.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.