// Event · Tier C

ESL Challenger League Season 52: Oceania - Cup 1

26 Aug – 1 Sep 2026 Online $2,500 prize pool Finished
Winner
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
3–0 · Asia-Pacific #6

No forecast of ours was made before it started.

How it finished

Results from bo3
Winner
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
3–0Asia-Pacific #6
Final
Ground Zero
3–2Asia-Pacific #7
Semi-final
Arcade
2–2Asia-Pacific #25
Semi-final
Rooster
2–2Asia-Pacific #15

Winners and losers

Valve's points · release of 7 Sep
MARKandLARRY 1–2Quarter-final -19
Mindfreak 1–2Quarter-final -46
Arcade 2–2Semi-final -52
Ground Zero 3–2Final -64
Rooster 2–2Semi-final -82
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 3–0Winner -108
Orgless 0–2Quarter-final —
How these numbers are made
  • Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 22 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
  • Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
  • Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
  • Points are Valve's change between its releases of 3 August and 7 September, so other events and ageing move them too.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.