ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 3
As our forecast of 7 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
No team in the race is known to attend yet. Our model expects 1 there, but names only teams on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
The field
regainAM #28 · Elo 1,454
2
Iowa StormboarAM #31 · Elo 1,426
3
DETONATEAM #39 · Elo 1,422
4
FarmVilleAM #37 · Elo 1,414
5
Overtake SectorAM #34 · Elo 1,411
VillainousAM #45 · Elo 1,402
ZomblersAM #57 · Elo 1,391
EMPIREAM #49 · Elo 1,374
Club 333AM #51 · Elo 1,347
Wanted GoonsAM #60 · Elo 1,316
Reign AboveAM #71
OverKnightAM
How it finished
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
Zomblers
3–2Semi-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
Wanted Goons
2–2Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
Villainous
1–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
Club 333
1–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
EMPIRE
1–2Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
Reign Above
0–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
OverKnight
0–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 7 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 7 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 15 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.