Outside the profile on six of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected, opponent network, LAN wins, activity and win rate.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on five of seven since the 7 September release.Dashed is FarmVille's own profile on 7 Sep · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered21Bounty collected19Opponent network25LAN wins9Activity21Win rate16Head to head75
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
Under 1% for the Major in our runs. 560 points behind Imperial in the last seat today; a median 42nd at the cut.
// Act one
The verdict
Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. FarmVille are 37th, 28 places outside.
<1%FarmVille are 37th, 28 places outside the 9, 560 points behind ImperialChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 5 Oct 2026
15FarmVille42 · 39–4537▲22, 22 places up at the cut<1
In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
// Act two
How they got here
22 matches in Valve's six-month window, 10 won, across 5 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings. One event since Valve's 5 Oct release is not in its numbers yet; it comes first, with bo3's results and our estimate.
Since Valve's 5 Oct release · not counted yet
Counted by Valve · head to head
8 Oct – 10 Oct
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 3
Not in Valve's numbers yet· Valve counts an event once it has finished; its next release is due 2 Nov
Record1–2
Finish—
Prize—
≈-4pts
Our estimate · not Valve's
Americas #36 without it, #38 with it.
3 matches
LWanted GoonsOct 101–2
LOvertake SectorOct 90–1
WVillainousOct 82–1
Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.
22 Sep – 27 Sep
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 2
Their most valuable event. It holds 12 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Aug – 27 Aug
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 1
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
26 Apr – 1 May
Thunderpick World Championship 2026: North American Series
Record1–2
Head to head-2.22
Still counts15%
These results are down to 15% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
27 Apr – 30 Apr
ESL Challenger League Season 51: North America - Cup 4
Record1–2
Head to head-0.76
Still counts15%
These results are down to 15% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The events since that release are bo3's results and prize tables, and the estimate is ours: Valve's standings projected to the event's end with and without it. It is replaced by Valve's own figures once Valve publishes them.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For FarmVille that is 702.1 plus 35.3.
The two parts
Valve's · release 5 Oct 2026
Starting value702.1
+
Head to head+35.3
=
Points737
The head-to-head correction is 4.8% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.293median 0.520
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.254median 0.496
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.057median 0.206
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.000median 0.702
FarmVilleMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 702.1; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
FarmVille: Below the median of the 15 chasing the slots on all four factors.
None of the 22 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.