← Race to the Major

LAG

Americas #22
2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1
Bwills · Cryptic · djay · Sandman · SLIGHT
Outside the profile on four of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected, opponent network and LAN wins.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on four of seven since the 7 September release. Down on LAN wins and activity.Dashed is LAG's own profile on 7 Sep · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered44 Bounty collected33 Opponent network36 LAN wins48 Activity71 Win rate54 Head to head28
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
LAG are 22nd, 13 places outside the 9, 276 points behind Imperial
Chance of the Major · Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Americas standing
22nd
  1. 20Turma do Pagode
  2. 21Without a Roof
  3. 22LAG
  4. 23Marsborne
  5. 24ex-Keyd Stars
13 places outside the Major
VRS points
1,021
World #109 · 276 behind Imperial
Since April
25th to 22nd
Peaked 16th · Valve's standings
Out of the race

Under 1% for the Major in our runs. 276 points behind Imperial in the last seat today; a median 23rd at the cut.

// Act one

The verdict

Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. LAG are 22nd, 13 places outside.

<1% LAG are 22nd, 13 places outside the 9, 276 points behind Imperial Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 5 Oct 2026

Who they are racing

Americas · 9 slots
CutTeamTodayMajor
1FURIA1 · 1–12, 1 place up at the cut>99
2Legacy2 · 2–21, 1 place down at the cut>99
Stage 3 line
39z3 · 3–44, 1 place up at the cut>99
Stage 2 line
4MIBR4 · 3–43, 1 place down at the cut>99
5Liquid6 · 5–75>99
6M805 · 5–66>99
7DENDELE7 · 6–9790
8Wildcard8 · 7–1512, 4 places up at the cut80
9Imperial9 · 7–11956
The cut · top 9 go
10NRG10 · 8–118, 2 places down at the cut43
11paiN11 · 8–1310, 1 place down at the cut23
12Fluxo12 · 10–1311, 1 place down at the cut5
13BESTIA15 · 11–1814, 1 place up at the cut2
14SportsBetExpert14 · 12–1613, 1 place down at the cut<1
15LAG23 · 22–2322, 7 places up at the cut<1

In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.

Wildcard comes up into the 9, NRG falls out.

TodayValve's Regional Standings, 5 Oct
1Legacy1,931
2FURIA1,829
3MIBR1,585
49z1,544
5Liquid1,527
6M801,491
7DENDELE1,368
8NRG1,322
9Imperial1,297
10paiN1,287
11Fluxo1,277
12Wildcard1,239
13SportsBetExpert1,199
14BESTIA1,189
22LAG1,021
At the cutOurs · ordered by chance of the Major · median place and range
2Legacy2 · 2–2>99%
1FURIA1 · 1–1>99%
4MIBR4 · 3–4>99%
39z3 · 3–4>99%
5Liquid6 · 5–7>99%
6M805 · 5–6>99%
7DENDELE7 · 6–990%
10NRG10 · 8–1143%
9Imperial9 · 7–1156%
11paiN11 · 8–1323%
12Fluxo12 · 10–135%
8Wildcard8 · 7–1580%
14SportsBetExpert14 · 12–16<1%
13BESTIA15 · 11–182%
15LAG23 · 22–23<1%
LAGComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

Wildcard comes up into the 9, NRG falls out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

// Act two

How they got here

41 matches in Valve's six-month window, 24 won, across 17 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.

22 Sep – 29 Sep
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 2
The event's page →
Record4–1
Head to head+3.25
Still counts100%
5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L MarsborneSep 29A loss -18.38
W regainSep 27Bounty collected #4Opponent network #3LAN wins #10 +7.29
W Overtake SectorSep 25Bounty collected #5Opponent network #4LAN wins +6.47
W DETONATESep 23Bounty collected #8Opponent network #9LAN wins +4.47
W ZomblersSep 22A win outside the ten best +3.40
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

Among their most valuable. It holds 7 of the thirty slots that count, level with 1 other event.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Sep – 26 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–1
Head to head-5.97
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SportsBetExpertSep 26A loss -7.72
W BabagSep 25A win outside the ten best +1.75
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -5.97.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

17 Sep – 18 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–1
Head to head-5.44
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W OlympusSep 18A win outside the ten best +2.20
L SportsBetExpertSep 17A loss -7.64
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -5.44.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

3 Sep – 13 Sep
NSTLGA League Season 2
The event's page →
Record5–3
Head to head-31.48
Still counts100%
8 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Without a RoofSep 13A loss -18.15
W Iowa StormboarSep 12Bounty collectedOpponent network #8LAN wins +6.39
W Overtake SectorSep 12Bounty collected #6Opponent network #6LAN wins +5.98
L Without a RoofSep 11A loss -19.11
W regainSep 10Bounty collected #7Opponent network #5LAN wins +6.26
L MarsborneSep 5A loss -18.77
W DETONATESep 4Bounty collectedOpponent network #10LAN wins +4.29
W Beyond LimitsSep 3A win outside the ten best +1.63
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network4 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+2.87
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W NuToriousSep 11A win outside the ten best +2.87
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +2.87.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

6 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+8.53
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W Desi BoyzSep 6Bounty collected #9Opponent networkLAN wins +8.53
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

29 Aug – 30 Aug
FRAG Midwest: St. Louis 2026
The event's page →
Record3–0
Head to head+39.40
Still counts96%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W SportsBetExpertAug 30Bounty collected #2Opponent network #1LAN wins #1 +21.96
W Without a RoofAug 30Bounty collected #1Opponent network #7LAN wins #2 +12.58
W DETONATEAug 29Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #3 +4.86
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

Among their most valuable. It holds 7 of the thirty slots that count, level with 1 other event.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

29 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+8.34
Still counts96%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W Desi BoyzAug 29Bounty collected #10Opponent networkLAN wins #4 +8.34
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

28 Jul – 31 Jul
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
Record1–2
Head to head-19.31
Still counts76%

These results are down to 76% of their original weight.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SportsBetExpertJul 31A loss -5.17
W Iowa StormboarJul 29A win outside the ten best +0.77
L MarsborneJul 28A loss -14.91
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -19.31.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Jul – 10 Jul
BLAST Open Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
Record1–1
Head to head+1.97
Still counts62%

These results are down to 62% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L M80Jul 10A loss -1.09
W Overtake SectorJul 9Bounty collected #3Opponent network #2LAN wins +3.06
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

12 Jun
NSTLGA League Season 1
Record0–1
Head to head-13.02
Still counts44%

These results are down to 44% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L OlympusJun 12A loss -13.02
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -13.02.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

6 Jun
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-10.46
Still counts40%

These results are down to 40% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L VillainousJun 6A loss -10.46
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -10.46.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 May
FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026
Record1–2
Head to head-8.90
Still counts35%

These results are down to 35% of their original weight.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SportsBetExpertMay 30A loss -2.53
W Wanted GoonsMay 30Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #5 +1.21
L MarsborneMay 30A loss -7.58
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 May
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–0
Head to head+0.57
Still counts35%

These results are down to 35% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W absolute cinemaMay 30Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #6 +0.29
W makeSHIFTMay 30Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #7 +0.28
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Apr
FRAG 20
Record2–2
Head to head-3.74
Still counts12%

These results are down to 12% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Fisher CollegeApr 25A loss -3.23
W EMPIREApr 25Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #9 +0.13
L NRGApr 25A loss -0.77
W EMPIREApr 25Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #9 +0.13
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 Apr
CCT Season 3 North American Series 4
Record0–1
Head to head-0.67
Still counts2%

These results are down to 2% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L AetherApr 11A loss -0.67
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.67.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

10 Apr
Dust2.us Eagle Masters Series 7
Record0–1
Head to head-0.44
Still counts2%

These results are down to 2% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L VillainousApr 10A loss -0.44
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.44.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For LAG that is 1,055.1 minus 34.5.

The two parts

Valve's · release 5 Oct 2026
Starting value1,055.1
+
Head to head−34.5
=
Points1,021

The head-to-head correction is 3.4% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.386median 0.520
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.299median 0.496
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.115median 0.206
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.511median 0.702
LAGMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
The four factors0.386 + 0.299 + 0.115 + 0.511
Their average÷ 4 = 0.328
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.328 ÷ 0.800 × 1,600 = 1,055.5
  • 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 1,055.1; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

LAG: Below the median of the 15 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,524
Rank by our Elo88 of 560
Valve's world standing109

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
L L W L L W L W W W W W W L W W L W W W L L W W W W W L W L
Every match by opponent strength

1 of the 41 matches was against a side in the world's top 30, and the largest change in it was 1.1 points.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.