← Race to the Major

Voca

Americas #15
2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1
dare · junior · MarKE · nosraC · snav
Outside the profile on four of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected and LAN wins, above it on head to head.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on four of seven since the 7 September release. Down on bounty offered and head to head.Dashed is Voca's own profile on 7 Sep · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered40 Bounty collected48 Opponent network55 LAN wins48 Activity67 Win rate88 Head to head89
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Voca are 15th, 6 places outside the 9, 115 points behind Imperial
Chance of the Major · Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Americas standing
15th
  1. 13SportsBetExpert
  2. 14BESTIA
  3. 15Voca
  4. 16ShindeN
  5. 17Galorys
6 places outside the Major
VRS points
1,182
World #68 · 115 behind Imperial
Since April
13th to 15th
Peaked 12th · Valve's standings
Out of the race

Under 1% for the Major in our runs. 115 points behind Imperial in the last seat today; a median 16th at the cut.

// Act one

The verdict

Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. Voca are 15th, 6 places outside.

<1% Voca are 15th, 6 places outside the 9, 115 points behind Imperial Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 5 Oct 2026

Who they are racing

Americas · 9 slots
CutTeamTodayMajor
1FURIA1 · 1–12, 1 place up at the cut>99
2Legacy2 · 2–21, 1 place down at the cut>99
Stage 3 line
39z3 · 3–44, 1 place up at the cut>99
Stage 2 line
4MIBR4 · 3–43, 1 place down at the cut>99
5Liquid6 · 5–75>99
6M805 · 5–66>99
7DENDELE7 · 6–9790
8Wildcard8 · 7–1512, 4 places up at the cut80
9Imperial9 · 7–11956
The cut · top 9 go
10NRG10 · 8–118, 2 places down at the cut43
11paiN11 · 8–1310, 1 place down at the cut23
12Fluxo12 · 10–1311, 1 place down at the cut5
13BESTIA15 · 11–1814, 1 place up at the cut2
14Voca16 · 14–1715, 1 place up at the cut<1
15SportsBetExpert14 · 12–1613, 2 places down at the cut<1

In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.

Wildcard comes up into the 9, NRG falls out.

TodayValve's Regional Standings, 5 Oct
1Legacy1,931
2FURIA1,829
3MIBR1,585
49z1,544
5Liquid1,527
6M801,491
7DENDELE1,368
8NRG1,322
9Imperial1,297
10paiN1,287
11Fluxo1,277
12Wildcard1,239
14BESTIA1,189
15Voca1,182
At the cutOurs · ordered by chance of the Major · median place and range
2Legacy2 · 2–2>99%
1FURIA1 · 1–1>99%
4MIBR4 · 3–4>99%
39z3 · 3–4>99%
5Liquid6 · 5–7>99%
6M805 · 5–6>99%
7DENDELE7 · 6–990%
10NRG10 · 8–1143%
9Imperial9 · 7–1156%
11paiN11 · 8–1323%
12Fluxo12 · 10–135%
8Wildcard8 · 7–1580%
15SportsBetExpert14 · 12–16<1%
13BESTIA15 · 11–182%
14Voca16 · 14–17<1%
VocaComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

Wildcard comes up into the 9, NRG falls out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

// Act two

How they got here

40 matches in Valve's six-month window, 27 won, across 11 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings. One event since Valve's 5 Oct release is not in its numbers yet; it comes first, with bo3's results and our estimate.

Since Valve's 5 Oct release · not counted yet
Counted by Valve · head to head
16 Oct
Elisa BreakOut Series 2
The event's page →
Not in Valve's numbers yet· Valve counts an event once it has finished; its next release is due 2 Nov
Record1–2
Finish—
Prize—
≈-8pts
Our estimate · not Valve's
Americas #14 either way.
3 matches
W ROUNDSOct 16 1–0
L HAVUOct 16 0–1
L PhantomOct 16 0–1

Our estimate projects Valve's 5 Oct standings to the event's last day with every match and prize known since, once with the event and once without; the difference is this event's. Valve's head-to-head change per match, and which of its counting slots these results take, come with its release. Two events' estimates do not add up exactly.

2 Oct
Journey Autumn 2026
The event's page →
Record4–2
Head to head+15.45
Still counts100%
6 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L 100 ThievesOct 2A loss -4.76
W PrestigeOct 2Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #1 +3.66
W SashiOct 2Bounty collected #2Opponent network #5LAN wins #2 +14.46
L BC.GameOct 2A loss -9.93
W GlitchOct 2Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #3 +1.52
W BASEMENT BOYSOct 2Bounty collected #7Opponent network #1LAN wins #4 +10.50
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins4 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 8 of the 28 slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Sep – 26 Sep
iBUYPOWER Masters fl0m's Mythical LAN 2026
The event's page →
Record1–2
Head to head+5.72
Still counts100%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L M80Sep 26A loss -4.41
W BESTIASep 25Bounty collected #4Opponent network #9LAN wins #5 +17.30
L DENDELESep 25A loss -7.17
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the 28 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Sep – 12 Sep
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: North American Qualifier
The event's page →
Record2–2
Head to head-2.84
Still counts100%
4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L LiquidSep 12A loss -3.64
W Without a RoofSep 11Bounty collected #9Opponent networkLAN wins #7 +8.58
L NRGSep 10A loss -9.92
W VillainousSep 9Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #9 +2.14
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 3 of the 28 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+1.01
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W antivalueSep 11Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #8 +1.01
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 1 of the 28 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Aug – 1 Sep
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 1
The event's page →
Record5–0
Head to head+20.47
Still counts98%
5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W MarsborneSep 1A win outside the ten best +7.14
W MarsborneAug 30Bounty collected #6Opponent network #4LAN wins #10 +7.23
W Overtake SectorAug 28Bounty collectedOpponent network #10LAN wins +2.86
W FarmVilleAug 26A win outside the ten best +2.41
W New LegendsAug 25A win outside the ten best +0.83
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 4 of the 28 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

28 Jul – 2 Aug
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
Record3–1
Head to head+29.22
Still counts78%

These results are down to 78% of their original weight.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L NRGAug 2A loss -7.48
W NRGAug 1Bounty collected #1Opponent network #6LAN wins +16.94
W SportsBetExpertJul 30Bounty collected #3Opponent network #2LAN wins +15.76
W regainJul 28Bounty collectedOpponent network #8LAN wins +4.00
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 5 of the 28 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Jul – 11 Jul
BLAST Open Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
Record2–1
Head to head+3.49
Still counts63%

These results are down to 63% of their original weight.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L M80Jul 11A loss -1.77
W regainJul 10Bounty collected #10Opponent network #7LAN wins +3.45
W NuToriousJul 9A win outside the ten best +1.81
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the 28 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

27 May – 28 May
ESL Challenger League Season 51: North America
Record1–1
Head to head+0.79
Still counts34%

These results are down to 34% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L M80May 28A loss -0.94
W Chicken CoopMay 27A win outside the ten best +1.73
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.79.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

26 Apr – 3 May
ESL Challenger League Season 51: North America - Cup 4
Record5–1
Head to head+3.08
Still counts17%

These results are down to 17% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

6 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W WildcardMay 3Bounty collected #8Opponent networkLAN wins +3.38
W ZomblersMay 2A win outside the ten best +0.38
L WildcardMay 1A loss -1.82
W ZomblersApr 29A win outside the ten best +0.31
W Chicken CoopApr 27A win outside the ten best +0.69
W New LegendsApr 26A win outside the ten best +0.14
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 1 of the 28 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Apr
FRAG 20
Record1–2
Head to head-3.30
Still counts12%

These results are down to 12% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L MarsborneApr 25A loss -2.79
L WildcardApr 25A loss -1.37
W MarsborneApr 25Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #6 +0.86
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 1 of the 28 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

12 Apr – 14 Apr
CCT Season 3 North American Series 4
Record2–1
Head to head-1.04
Still counts4%

These results are down to 4% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L MarsborneApr 14A loss -1.27
W regainApr 13A win outside the ten best +0.18
W Club 333Apr 12A win outside the ten best +0.05
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.04.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 28 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The events since that release are bo3's results and prize tables, and the estimate is ours: Valve's standings projected to the event's end with and without it. It is replaced by Valve's own figures once Valve publishes them.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Voca that is 1,109.9 plus 72.1.

The two parts

Valve's · release 5 Oct 2026
Starting value1,109.9
+
Head to head+72.1
=
Points1,182

The head-to-head correction is 6.1% of the total.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.376median 0.520
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.344median 0.496
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.189median 0.206
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.511median 0.702
VocaMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
The four factors0.376 + 0.344 + 0.189 + 0.511
Their average÷ 4 = 0.355
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.355 ÷ 0.800 × 1,600 = 1,110.0
  • 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 1,109.9; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

Voca: Below the median of the 15 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,574
Rank by our Elo62 of 560
Valve's world standing68

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W W W L W W L W W W L W W W W W W L W W L L W L W W L W W L
Every match by opponent strength

5 of the 40 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 4.8 points.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.