PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Why it matters
Natus Vincere
Nemiga
TYLOO
DENDELERace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 54%. From a quarter-final it pays: >99%. 54% to >99% here.
In our runs Natus Vincere are above the 76% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 22 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 72%. From a quarter-final it pays: >99%. 72% to >99% here.
In our runs Nemiga are above the 79% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 7 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 75%. From a quarter-final it pays: >99%. 75% to >99% here.
In our runs TYLOO are above the 77% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 3 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 87%. From a quarter-final it pays: >99%. 87% to >99% here.
In our runs DENDELE are above the 87% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Drawn matches
Each team in the race's chance of the Major today, and in our runs where it wins or loses its drawn match.
The field
VitalityEU #2 · Elo 1,935
2
SpiritEU #1 · Elo 1,900
3
MOUZEU #3 · Elo 1,880
4
FURIAAM #2 · Elo 1,844
5
AuroraEU #7 · Elo 1,830
6
FUTEU #6 · Elo 1,804
7
In the race, 76% for the Major: Natus VincereEU #28 · Elo 1,775
8
LegacyAM #1 · Elo 1,774
9
G2EU #4 · Elo 1,771
10
BetBoomEU #9 · Elo 1,771
11
The MongolZAP #2 · Elo 1,744
12
9zAM #4 · Elo 1,731
13
In the race, 79% for the Major: NemigaEU #11 · Elo 1,712
14
In the race, 77% for the Major: TYLOOAP #1 · Elo 1,653
15
LiquidAM #5 · Elo 1,637
16
In the race, 87% for the Major: DENDELEAM #7 · Elo 1,595
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 23 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.