← Race to the Major

Virtus.pro

Europe #40
6 stage 36 stage 26 stage 1
AquaRS · b1st · F0R3VER · mir · tO0RO
Outside the profile on four of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected and LAN wins, above it on head to head.Band is the other 18 Europe sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Down on three of seven since the 7 September release. Up on activity and head to head.Dashed is Virtus.pro's own profile on 7 Sep · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered47 Bounty collected59 Opponent network70 LAN wins55 Activity74 Win rate90 Head to head96
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Virtus.pro are 40th, 22 places outside the 18, 174 points behind Alliance
Chance of the Major · Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Europe standing
40th
  1. 38Nuclear TigeRES
  2. 39FOKUS
  3. 40Virtus.pro
  4. 41Metizport
  5. 42INFINITE
22 places outside the Major
VRS points
1,309
World #51 · 174 behind Alliance
Since April
130th to 40th
Peaked 26th · Valve's standings
Out of the race

Under 1% for the Major in our runs. 174 points behind Alliance in the last seat today; a median 45th at the cut.

// Act one

The verdict

Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. Virtus.pro are 40th, 22 places outside.

<1% Virtus.pro are 40th, 22 places outside the 18, 174 points behind Alliance Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 5 Oct 2026

Who they are racing

Europe · 18 slots
CutTeamTodayMajor
1Vitality1 · 1–22, 1 place up at the cut>99
2MOUZ2 · 1–33, 1 place up at the cut>99
3Spirit3 · 2–41, 2 places down at the cut>99
4Aurora4 · 3–57, 3 places up at the cut>99
5Falcons5 · 5–65>99
6BETBOOM7 · 5–89, 3 places up at the cut>99
Stage 3 line
7FUT7 · 5–96, 1 place down at the cut>99
8G27 · 6–84, 4 places down at the cut>99
9PARIVISION10 · 9–1130, 21 places up at the cut>99
10Astralis10 · 9–128, 2 places down at the cut>99
11Ninjas in Pyjamas11 · 10–1314, 3 places up at the cut>99
121win15 · 13–1732, 20 places up at the cut99
Stage 2 line
13HEROIC14 · 13–1612, 1 place down at the cut98
14FaZe14 · 12–1820, 6 places up at the cut92
15Nemiga15 · 11–2011, 4 places down at the cut80
16Natus Vincere12 · 8–2228, 12 places up at the cut76
17B817 · 14–2310, 7 places down at the cut69
18100 Thieves18 · 16–2122, 4 places up at the cut57
The cut · top 18 go
19magic22 · 15–3017, 2 places down at the cut29
20BIG22 · 16–2919, 1 place down at the cut26
21Inner Circle22 · 16–2915, 6 places down at the cut24
22JiJieHao21 · 17–2524, 2 places up at the cut17
23Eternal Fire23 · 18–3027, 4 places up at the cut14
24Nemesis28 · 20–3323, 1 place down at the cut6
25Luminosity26 · 21–3013, 12 places down at the cut1
263DMAX24 · 22–2616, 10 places down at the cut<1
27Alliance33 · 25–3518, 9 places down at the cut<1
28GamerLegion31 · 27–3521, 7 places down at the cut<1
29Virtus.pro45 · 37–4740, 11 places up at the cut<1

In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.

FaZe, 100 Thieves, Natus Vincere, PARIVISION and 1win come up into the 18, Luminosity, Inner Circle, 3DMAX, magic and Alliance fall out.

TodayValve's Regional Standings, 5 Oct
1Spirit2,046
2Vitality1,911
3MOUZ1,863
4G21,847
5Falcons1,843
6FUT1,799
7Aurora1,716
8Astralis1,674
9BETBOOM1,596
10B81,555
11Nemiga1,551
12HEROIC1,550
13Luminosity1,547
14Ninjas in Pyjamas1,534
15Inner Circle1,516
163DMAX1,500
17magic1,489
18Alliance1,483
19BIG1,482
20FaZe1,482
21GamerLegion1,479
22100 Thieves1,478
23Nemesis1,455
24JiJieHao1,454
27Eternal Fire1,429
28Natus Vincere1,427
30PARIVISION1,411
321win1,383
40Virtus.pro1,309
At the cutOurs · ordered by chance of the Major · median place and range
3Spirit3 · 2–4>99%
1Vitality1 · 1–2>99%
2MOUZ2 · 1–3>99%
8G27 · 6–8>99%
5Falcons5 · 5–6>99%
7FUT7 · 5–9>99%
4Aurora4 · 3–5>99%
10Astralis10 · 9–12>99%
6BETBOOM7 · 5–8>99%
17B817 · 14–2369%
15Nemiga15 · 11–2080%
13HEROIC14 · 13–1698%
25Luminosity26 · 21–301%
11Ninjas in Pyjamas11 · 10–13>99%
21Inner Circle22 · 16–2924%
263DMAX24 · 22–26<1%
19magic22 · 15–3029%
27Alliance33 · 25–35<1%
20BIG22 · 16–2926%
14FaZe14 · 12–1892%
28GamerLegion31 · 27–35<1%
18100 Thieves18 · 16–2157%
24Nemesis28 · 20–336%
22JiJieHao21 · 17–2517%
23Eternal Fire23 · 18–3014%
16Natus Vincere12 · 8–2276%
9PARIVISION10 · 9–11>99%
121win15 · 13–1799%
29Virtus.pro45 · 37–47<1%
Virtus.proComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

FaZe, 100 Thieves, Natus Vincere, PARIVISION and 1win come up into the 18, Luminosity, Inner Circle, 3DMAX, magic and Alliance fall out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

// Act two

How they got here

42 matches in Valve's six-month window, 29 won, across 11 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.

22 Sep
Stake Pulse Beat II
The event's page →
Record0–2
Head to head-38.36
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Johnny SpeedsSep 22A loss -25.52
L BBLSep 22A loss -12.84
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -38.36.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Sep – 13 Sep
Thunderpick World Championship 2026: Global Qualifier
The event's page →
Record5–1
Head to head+90.90
Still counts100%
6 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W HOTUSep 13Bounty collected #6Opponent networkLAN wins +22.01
W HEROICSep 13Bounty collected #5Opponent networkLAN wins +23.76
W FOKUSSep 12Bounty collected #9Opponent networkLAN wins +18.59
W K27Sep 11Bounty collected #7Opponent networkLAN wins +22.34
W BESTIASep 10A win outside the ten best +12.80
L K27Sep 9A loss -8.60
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected4 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 4 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

3 Sep
Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier
The event's page →
Record0–1
Head to head-8.36
Still counts99%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L fnaticSep 3A loss -8.36
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -8.36.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 Aug – 1 Sep
ESL Challenger League Season 52: Europe - Cup 5
The event's page →
Record4–1
Head to head-13.56
Still counts97%
5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L EntropySep 1A loss -27.27
W WBT AcademySep 1Bounty collectedOpponent network #6LAN wins +3.17
W DramaAug 31Bounty collectedOpponent network #7LAN wins +1.74
W Inner Circle AcademyAug 30Bounty collectedOpponent network #5LAN wins +6.40
W Fire FluxAug 30Bounty collectedOpponent network #8LAN wins +2.40
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network4 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 4 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

7 Aug – 9 Aug
Esports World Cup 2026: Open Qualifier
Record2–1
Head to head+20.09
Still counts82%

These results are down to 82% of their original weight.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SashiAug 9A loss -14.99
W JiJieHaoAug 8Bounty collected #3Opponent network #1LAN wins #1 +18.62
W SangalAug 7Bounty collected #10Opponent network #3LAN wins #2 +16.46
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

27 Jul – 30 Jul
CIS LAN Championship 6
Record3–1
Head to head+9.74
Still counts76%

These results are down to 76% of their original weight.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L WWJul 30A loss -15.66
W BAKSJul 30Bounty collectedOpponent network #9LAN wins #3 +7.93
W CYBERSHOKEJul 29Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #4 +9.70
W WWJul 27Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #5 +7.77
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

It holds 4 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

27 Jul
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+0.20
Still counts73%

These results are down to 73% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W CRUISER AURORAJul 27Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #6 +0.20
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Jul – 11 Jul
RES Showdown Europe Fall 2026
Record2–1
Head to head+29.64
Still counts63%

These results are down to 63% of their original weight.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Inner CircleJul 11A loss -3.59
W B8Jul 10Bounty collected #2Opponent network #4LAN wins +16.10
W Ninjas in PyjamasJul 9Bounty collected #1Opponent network #2LAN wins +17.13
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 4 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Jun – 21 Jun
CCT Europe 2026 Series 4
Record5–3
Head to head-15.25
Still counts49%

These results are down to 49% of their original weight.

8 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L ex-RUBYJun 21A loss -12.96
W ColorJun 20A win outside the ten best +3.25
W K27Jun 19Bounty collected #4Opponent network #10LAN wins +12.32
W PsychoFaceJun 17A win outside the ten best +1.55
W brazylijski luzJun 15A win outside the ten best +0.95
L illwillJun 14A loss -13.49
L INOX DivisionJun 12A loss -10.18
W ButterflyJun 9A win outside the ten best +3.31
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

7 Jun – 14 Jun
European Pro League Series 7
Record2–2
Head to head-1.95
Still counts45%

These results are down to 45% of their original weight.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L INFINITEJun 14A loss -4.25
W GenOneJun 12A win outside the ten best +7.51
L KOLESIEJun 11A loss -11.94
W GenOneJun 7A win outside the ten best +6.73
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.95.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

26 May – 28 May
CIS LAN Championship 5
Record5–0
Head to head+15.08
Still counts34%

These results are down to 34% of their original weight.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W ARCREDMay 28Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #7 +0.78
W K27May 28Bounty collected #8Opponent networkLAN wins #8 +8.62
W BET-MMay 27Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #9 +2.64
W CYBERSHOKEMay 26Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #10 +0.73
W ColorMay 26A win outside the ten best +2.31
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins4 / 10

It holds 5 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Virtus.pro that is 1,221.1 plus 88.2.

The two parts

Valve's · release 5 Oct 2026
Starting value1,221.1
+
Head to head+88.2
=
Points1,309

The head-to-head correction is 6.7% of the total.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.399median 0.656
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.413median 0.550
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.241median 0.297
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.590median 0.844
Virtus.proMedian of the 29 chasing the slots in Europe
The four factors0.399 + 0.413 + 0.241 + 0.590
Their average÷ 4 = 0.411
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.411 ÷ 0.800 × 1,600 = 1,221.5
  • 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 1,221.1; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

Virtus.pro: Below the median of the 29 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,629
Rank by our Elo43 of 560
Valve's world standing51

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W W W W L W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W L L L W W W W W L L
Every match by opponent strength

5 of the 42 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 23.8 points.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.